Investors in biotech often ask a simple question:“If I invest, can I exit — and at what deal value?” To solve complex problems — like estimating range of deal values in biotech — we agreed on something crucial: We can’t take a…
Are you tempted to interrupt a conversation when you disagree? No one is born a saint; we all learn from mistakes. I used to do that several years ago, until one day, one of the stakeholders I was working with…
Ever tried a new roast from a different region… Only to realise it’s not for you? No big deal, you just switch back. The cost of changing your mind is low. But what if switching decisions came with millions in…
Have you witnessed the “prophet without honor” effect in your company? It’s widely observed that advice from experienced internal team members is often dismissed or undervalued, while similar advice from prestigious external consultants or top firms—suddenly feels credible, urgent, or…
When “Efficiency” Backfires — in Biotech and in Life A recent small power outage in Spain and Portugal created unexpected anxiety. Supermarkets couldn’t process card payments — no electricity. Luckily, I had cash. How many times have you been late…
Valuing warrants in biotech isn’t as straightforward as it seems. Black-Scholes might give you a clean number, but does it really capture the uncertainty, illiquidity, and tail risks we live with in early-stage biotech? In this video, I explore a…
In this quick video, I unpack what physics and information theory can teach us about deal structures in biotech. Probably, you may not look at a “$3B deal” the same way again. I explain: Thanks for watching! 👋
Several years ago, a brilliant advertisement for an Indian detergent went viral. You can watch it here. I encourage you to watch the ad first so that you understand the context of this short essay. I bet the ad inspired…
The recent market crash is a great example of a hard problem: How do you beat the market? We often rush to find a single cause—this time, maybe it’s Trump’s tariffs. But that oversimplifies things. Hard problems, by definition, don’t…
Recently, I stumbled upon an article where a business angel shared how he had done well, but also missed some very interesting investments that could have delivered excellent returns. He recommended strategies to improve the accuracy of his good investments….