Investors in biotech often ask a simple question:
“If I invest, can I exit — and at what deal value?” To solve complex problems — like estimating range of deal values in biotech — we agreed on something crucial: We can’t take a purely reductionist route.

Complex problems have too many interdependencies — they don’t offer clean, linear causality. So the solution itself must be simple. Complex problems don’t need complex solutions.

To get there, we start by finding patterns in past deals. But here’s the catch: pattern is not the path. Why?

In this episode, I dive into what comes after pattern recognition — how to bridge the gap between patterns and actual deal value ranges.